Hiring Is Guesswork: Why CVs, References, and “Vibes” Only Tell Part of the Story
I was scrolling through LinkedIn when I came across a video from Gary Vaynerchuk, the marketing entrepreneur who leads a company with more than 2,000 employees.
One statement immediately stood out: he said he hasn’t looked at a résumé or checked references in decades. That might sound shocking, even irresponsible. But the more I reflected on it, the more I realized there is a deeper truth behind his perspective. Hiring, at its core, is uncertainty. No matter how many processes, frameworks, or interviews we design, we are still making a judgment call about a human being we barely know.
So this post is not about rejecting CVs or references entirely. It is about understanding their limitations and recognizing what truly matters when choosing people to work with.
CVs Are Easy to Fake, Performance Is Not
The biggest issue with CVs is simple: they are self-reported narratives.
Anyone can claim achievements, exaggerate responsibilities, or present a polished version of reality. Even when information is technically accurate, it often lacks context. A bullet point on a résumé rarely reveals how someone actually solved problems, collaborated with others, or performed under pressure.
Because of this, task-based hiring has become increasingly valuable. Instead of relying on claims, you give candidates a real problem and observe how they approach it.
What matters is not whether the output is perfect. What matters is:
how they think
how they communicate
how they handle ambiguity
how they use available tools, including AI
We are living in a world where AI is part of everyday work. The question is no longer whether someone uses AI, but how effectively they use it.
References Are Often Polite Fiction
References are another hiring ritual that feels reliable but frequently isn’t.
Most people hesitate to give negative feedback about a former employee. When asked for a reference they either:
provide a safe, positive answer
decline to comment
avoid honesty altogether to prevent conflict
This turns references into a low-signal data point. They rarely uncover meaningful concerns and often confirm what hiring managers already want to believe.
The uncomfortable truth is that references tell you more about social dynamics than actual performance.
Hiring Is Largely Intuition (But Not Blind Intuition)
Hiring is often described as guesswork, and in many ways it is. Even the most structured hiring processes cannot fully predict how someone will perform once they join your team.
That said, intuition should not be confused with randomness.
Good intuition is informed by:
experience
pattern recognition
emotional awareness
contextual judgment
One aspect many leaders quietly rely on is interpersonal “vibe.” This is not about charisma or charm. In fact, charm can be misleading. Some of the most problematic hires are highly charismatic individuals who excel in interviews but struggle in execution.
Instead, the real signal lies in emotional congruence.
If interactions feel tense, forced, or draining, that friction often reappears later in collaboration. If conversations feel natural and relaxed, there is usually a stronger foundation for teamwork.
This does not mean rejecting people who are nervous in interviews. It means paying attention to how you feel after meaningful interaction, not performative moments.
Radical Transparency Improves Hiring Outcomes
One powerful practice that is often overlooked is honesty during the interview process.
Clearly explaining expectations, boundaries, and non-negotiables helps prevent future conflict. When candidates understand what success truly looks like, they can self-select out if the role does not align with them.
For example, if punctuality is critical, say it directly. If communication style matters, define it. If autonomy is expected, emphasize it.
Transparency reduces misunderstandings and builds psychological contracts before employment even begins.
Effort Signals Desire More Than Applications Do
Another insight that rarely appears in hiring guides is the power of initiative.
Mass job applications often signal low investment. In contrast, candidates who:
research the company deeply
find ways to contact decision makers
demonstrate contextual understanding
show clear intent
stand out immediately.
Effort communicates motivation. Motivation is difficult to teach and often predicts performance better than credentials.
People want to work with individuals who genuinely want to work with them.
Conclusion
At its core, hiring is about human judgment in an imperfect system.
Processes help, frameworks help, and data helps. But none of them replace discernment, clarity, and honest communication.
If there is one takeaway, it is this:
credentials tell stories, but behavior reveals truth.
And the best hiring decisions are rarely made from documents. They are made from experience, interaction, and the willingness to see people beyond what is written on paper.
Let’s get to know each other!